Buoy Observation Cams

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 081001
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1205 UTC Wed May 8 2024
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  0900 UTC.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The majority of the monsoon trough remains inland over Africa,
  and extends briefly southwestward off the west coast of Africa
  to near 09N18W. The ITCZ then begins and continues to 04N27W to
  02N40W to 03N44W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered
  moderate to isolated strong convection is seen S of 04N between
  32W and 42W. Scattered moderate convection is well southeast of
  the ITCZ from 02N to 04N and east of 10W to well inland Africa.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  The Bermuda subtropical ridge extends west-southwestward to the
  north-central Gulf. This is causing light to gentle winds in the
  eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh ESE winds over the western
  Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 4 to 6 in the
  west. No significant convection is is occurring in the basin, but
  haze due to agricultural fires in SE Mexico continues to restrict
  visibility across portions of the western Gulf.
  
  For the forecast, fresh SE winds will prevail across much of the
  Gulf into Thu night, ahead of a cold front. Locally strong winds
  will pulse nightly through late week off the northern and western
  Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern
  Mexico persists in the western Gulf. Looking ahead, the cold front
  will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Thu night,
  shift southeast, then slow down and weaken further as extends from
  South Florida to Veracruz, Mexico, by late Sat.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  A persistent broad mid to upper-level trough is over the western
  Atlantic, with its southern portion stretching southwestward into
  to the north-central Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
  noted in and around the Windward Passage, extending eastward
  across the the eastern Greater Antilles and adjacent Caribbean
  waters, in association with this trough. The trough will
  gradually weaken and move farther northeast of the area through
  Thu night. Abundant deep- tropical moisture remains prevalent in
  the eastern Caribbean. This in combination with ample instability
  provided by the aforementioned trough should result in more
  convection, some locally heavy, over that part of the sea through
  at least early Thu. Please see local weather advisories for more
  information.
  
  Moderate to fresh trades are occurring over the south-central
  Caribbean, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. The remainder of the basin
  exhibits gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft.
  
  For the forecast, high pressure centered just SE of Bermuda will
  support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central and
  SE Caribbean into the weekend. Meanwhile, expect pulses of fresh
  to locally strong E winds mainly at night across the Gulf of
  Honduras starting today, between the high pressure and lower
  pressure over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and
  moderate seas will persist elsewhere.
  
  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  The SW North Atlantic continues to be under the influence of weak
  high pressure of 1018 mb centered southeast of Bermuda near
  30N53W. The associated gradient is allowing for moderate to fresh
  trade winds to exist south of about 23N and west of 60W and from
  18N to 21N between 45W and 57W. A weak trough bisects the Florida
  peninsula from N to S. A cold front extends from near 31N26W
  southwestward to 22N35W, where it becomes a stationary front to
  18N42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted E of the front as
  well as within 90 nm either side of a line from 18N42W to
  Guadeloupe.
  
  Seas of 8 to 10 ft due to long-period north swell are north of
  24N between 34W and 53W. Moderate west to northwest winds are
  over this area of seas. Light to gentle winds along with moderate
  seas are elsewhere.
  
  For the forecast west of 55W, the moderate to fresh winds E of
  23N will diminish tonight as the high pressure shifts E. Expect
  fresh SW winds off northeast Florida starting tonight ahead of a
  cold front moving off the Carolinas.
  
  $$
  Konarik