NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 080605
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  0605 UTC Wed May 08 2024
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  0545 UTC.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The majority of the monsoon trough remains inland over Africa,
  and extends briefly southwestward off the west coast of Africa
  to near 09N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates the
  ITCZ begins and continues to 05N24W to 03N31W to 02N39W and
  02N40W to 03N44W and to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered
  moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm north
  of the ITCZ between 39W-42W. Additional scattered moderate to
  isolated strong convection is well southeast of the ITCZ from
  02N to 04N and east of 10W to well inland Africa. Scattered
  moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ
  between 42W-46W, and also well south of the ITCZ from the
  Equator to 03N between 11W-19W.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  The Bermuda subtropical ridge extends west-southwestward to the
  north-central Gulf. Recent partial ASCAT data and latest buoy
  observations show light to gentle winds in the eastern Gulf,
  and generally gentle to moderate southeast winds over the rest
  of the basin, except for moderate to fresh east to southeast winds
  over the western Gulf and Bay of the Campeche. Per latest
  altimeter data and buoy observations, seas are in the 3 to 5 ft
  range, except for slightly higher seas of 4 to 6 ft over the
  central Gulf and lower seas of 2 to 4 ft over the NE and
  southeastern Gulf areas.
  
  Satellite imagery shows overcast mostly mid and upper-level
  clouds streaming east-northeastward over the western Gulf north of
  24N and west of 90W. In addition, haze due to agricultural fires
  in southeastern Mexico persists in the SW and west-central Gulf
  Otherwise, mostly clear skies are elsewhere across the basin.
  
  For the forecast, low pressure extending from north-central
  Mexico into the southern U.S. plains will continue to draw in
  mainly fresh SE winds across much of the Gulf into Thu night.
  Locally strong winds are likely to pulse nightly through late week
  off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Looking ahead, a
  weak cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest
  Gulf Thu night, shift southeastward and slow down and weaken
  further as extends from South Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by late
  Sat. The haze in the SW and west-central Gulf sections is
  expected to linger into early Fri.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  A persistent broad mid to upper-level trough is over the western
  Atlantic, with its southern portion stretching southwestward into
  to the north-central Caribbean. Isolated weak showers are over the
  waters between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. The trough will
  gradually weaken and move farther northeast of the area through
  Thu night. Abundant deep-tropical moistures remains prevalent in
  the eastern Caribbean. This in combination with ample instability
  provided by the aforementioned trough should result in more
  precipitation, some possibly locally heavy, over some sections of
  that part of the sea through at least early on Thu. Presently,
  scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from 14N
  to 16N and east of 72W. Please see local weather advisories for
  more information.
  
  Recent ASCAT data indicates that moderate to fresh trade winds are
  over the south-central Caribbean. Seas over these waters are in
  the 4 to 6 ft range. The data along with a few buoy observations
  reveal gentle to moderate trade winds over the rest of the basin.
  Seas with these winds are 3 to 5 ft.
  
  For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western
  Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the
  south-central and SE Caribbean through late week. Meanwhile,
  expect pulses of fresh to locally strong east winds mainly at
  night across the Gulf of Honduras starting Wed night, between the
  high pressure and lower pressure over the western Gulf. Gentle
  to moderate winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere.
  
  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  The SW North Atlantic continues to be under the influence of
  high pressure that is anchored by a weak 1019 mb high center
  analyzed southeast of Bermuda near 31N53W. The associated
  gradient is allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds to exist
  south of about 23N and west of 60W and from 18N to 21N between 45W
  and 57W. Another weak high center, of 1017 mb, is near 29N70W. A
  trough bisects the Florida peninsula from N to S. A cold front
  extends from near 31N27W southwestward to 21N36W, where it becomes
  a stationary front to 18N42W and a weak frontal trough from there
  to near 17N55W. Broken to overcast mostly low and mid-level
  clouds with embedded patches of rain and embedded showers and
  isolated thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm either side of a
  line from 18N42W to 17N51W and to near Guadeloupe. Overcast
  multilayer clouds, with large patches of mostly moderate rain and
  embedded showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are ahead of
  the front north of 20N. The pressure gradient is weak over the
  eastern Atlantic east of the first front.
  
  Low-level cloud streamers in the moist easterly flow are noted
  south of 25N and west of 69W. Isolated showers with some of these
  clouds.
  
  Seas of 8-10 ft due to long-period north swell are north of 26N
  between 38W and 55W. Fresh to west to northwest winds are over
  this area of seas. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate
  seas are elsewhere.
  
  For the forecast west of 55W, the moderate to fresh trade winds
  over the far southern waters will diminish as the ridge shifts
  eastward into late week. Meanwhile, large long-period north swell
  associated with low pressure well north of the region over the
  north central Atlantic will propagate through the waters north of
  27N and east of 60W through tonight. Looking ahead, expect fresh
  SW winds off northeast Florida starting Wed night ahead of a cold
  front that is expected to move off the Carolinas.
  
  $$
  Aguirre